China will launch an attack on before 2012. India
Note: The Article written by the editor-in-chief of Indian Defence Review was published by the IDR in its July 2009 issue.
By Bharat Verma
There are multiple reasons for a desperate
Beijing to teach India the final lesson, thereby ensuring Chinese supremacy in Asia in this century. The recession that shut the Chinese exports shop is creating an unprecedented internal social unrest. In turn, the vice-like grip of the communists over the society stands severely threatened.
Unemployment is on the rise. The unofficial estimate stands at a whopping fourteen percent. Worldwide recession has put thirty million people out of jobs. Economic slowdown is depleting the foreign exchange reserves. Foreign investors are slowly shifting out. To create a domestic market, the massive dole of loans to individuals is turning out to be a nightmare. There appears to be a flight of capital in billions of dollars in the shape of diamond and gold bought in
Hong Kong and shipped out towards end 2008.
The fear of losing control over the Chinese masses is forcing the communists to compulsorily install filtering software on new computers on sale to crush dissent on the Internet, even though it is impossible to censor in entirety the flow of information as witnessed recently in
The external picture appears to be equally dismal. The unfolding Obama strategy seems to be scoring goals for democracy and freedom without firing a single shot. While Bush unwittingly united and arrayed against himself Islamic countries and radical Islam worldwide, Obama has put radical Islam in disarray by lowering the intra-societal temperature vis-à-vis America and the Muslim world. He deftly hints at democracy in his talk without directly threatening any group or country and the youth picks it up from there - as in
In addition, the growing irrelevance of
To offset this adverse scenario, while overtly pretending to side with the West, the Chinese covertly ordered their other proxy,
The communists in
At present, there is no overall cost benefit ratio in integrating
Ideally, the Chinese believe that the east-wind should prevail over the west-wind. However, despite their imperial calculations of the past, they lag behind the West, particularly
The Chinese leadership wants to rally its population behind the communist rule. As it is,
All these three concerns of the Chinese communists are best addressed by waging a war against pacifist
The answers is an unequivocal ‘NO’. Pacifist
It is said that long time back, a king with an excellent military machine at his disposal could not stomach the violence involved in winning wars. So he renounced war in victory. This led to the rise of the pacifist philosophies. The state either refused to defend itself or neglected the instruments that could defend it.
Any ‘extreme’ is dangerous, as it tends to create imbalance in statecraft.
We saw that in the unjust unilateral aggression in
In the past sixty years, the deep-rooted pacifism contributed to the Civil Administration, ceding control of forty per cent of the Union’s territory to the Maoists and ten percent to the insurgents, effecting a shrinking influence internally, as well in the ‘near abroad’.
Keeping in view the imminent threat posed by
Bharat Verma, Editor Indian Defence Review.
___THE CHINESE RESPONSE__
Illusion of “
The 2000 km border between
Adding fuel to the flames is an article by Bharat Verma, editor of Indian Defense Review, predicting that
According to Mr. Verma, “growing unrest in
But a “
And even if
Other reasons the author mentions in the article are also vague. The Western powers would not take kindly to a Chinese conflict with
Further, it is important to realize there is no reason for
Last but not least,
However, there is one scenario where there is possibility for war: an aggressive Indian policy toward
Consider the 1959-1962 conflict, the only recorded war between
Now, it seems “back to the future”. Mr. Verma asserts another war will happen before 2012, a half century after the last, regrettable one.
The answers lie mainly on the Indian side. Given
(Chen Xiaochen serves as a journalist of editorial and comments in